Above: Pound to Dollar rate shown at 15-minute intervals alongside 02-year U.S. government bond yield. Above: Breakdown of PCE Price indices. "Most of the recent declines in core PCE inflation have been driven by acyclical factors, while traditionally cyclical components of core PCE inflation remain elevated with relatively more modest signs of slowing," she adds. Above: Pound to Dollar rate shown at daily intervals with selected moving averages and Fibonacci retracements of various microtrends indicating possible areas of technical support. Click image for closer inspection.To optimise the timing of international payments you could consider setting a free FX rate alert here.
Image © Adobe StockThe Canadian Dollar rallied against most counterparts in the final session of the week after Statistics Canada reported another surge in employment that led the jobless rate back down near to the record low recorded last summer with possible implications for Bank of Canada (BoC) policy. Canadian Dollars were bought widely after Statistics Canada said employment grew by 105k or 0.5% in December and when economists had been looking on average for a meagre 5k increase in payrolls to end an otherwise strong year. "The big gain in employment was once again not reflected in working hours, which Statistics Canada stated were little changed compared to the prior month. Above: Pound to Canadian Dollar rate shown at 15-minute intervals alongside USD/CAD. Above: Pound to Canadian Dollar rate shown at daily intervals alongside USD/CAD.2 months ago Pound Sterling LIVE
Above: Pound to Dollar rate at 2-hour intervals alongside AUD/USD and EUR/USD. "For the USD, we think it will be difficult to push renewed weakness ahead of US CPI next week," Issa writes in review of Friday's data. Above: Pound to Dollar rate shown at daily intervals with Fibonacci retracements of late September recoveries indicating possible areas of technical support for Sterling. "We expect ‘core’ (excluding food & energy products) price growth to slow to 5.6% year-over-year in December from 6.0% in October. While Friday's GDP data is the highlight of the week, the market will also likely pay close attention to remarks from the BoE's Governor Andrew Bailey, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.2 months ago Pound Sterling LIVE
We expect the BoJ will want to wait and see the outcome of the annual wage negotiation round (Shunto) in March/April 2023. Above: GBP./JPY shown at daily intervals with Fibonacci retracements of mid-2021 rally indicating possible areas of technical support for Sterling. "Now that pandora's box has been opened at the BOJ, there is very little from stopping the market from anticipating more changes. Meanwhile, USDJPY downside will persist; 130/132 will be the next major reassessment area," Issa writes following the BoJ decision. The Japanese Yen could benefit significantly further if Tuesday's BoJ decision leads speculative bets to be unwound en masse while GBP/JPY would likely fall to 158 and below if TD Securities' Issa is right about USD/JPY extending losses to 130 in the days ahead.3 months ago Pound Sterling LIVE
South Africa's Rand was an outperformer alongside the Australian and New Zealand Dollars on Wednesday with GBP/ZAR falling below the 20.30 handle and to some of its softest levels since early November. This is because of what would appear to be an overvaluation of USD/ZAR and an undervaluation of a GBP/USD, which might be more fairly priced near 15.81 and around 1.25 respectively. Above: Pound to Rand rate shown at daily intervals with selected moving averages. To optimise the timing of international payments you could consider setting a free FX rate alert here. Above: Pound to Rand rate shown at weekly intervals with selected moving averages and USD/ZAR.2 months ago Pound Sterling LIVE
Above: CPI inflation with core inflation (green line). The decline in Sterling's value reflects the market's expectation for less Bank of England intervention over the coming months as inflation falls back to the 2.0% target. The expected sharp falls in inflation will follow a fall in wholesale prices, says Tombs. Pantheon Economics expects CPI inflation rates for electricity and natural gas will slump to about -10% by the end of the year, from their 65% and 129% rates in January. Differences in opinion amongst economists as to how fast inflation will fall will keep alive uncertainty as to the outlook for UK interest rates.1 month ago Pound Sterling LIVE
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said interest rates need to rise further, but it was unclear how much further. The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) advanced to 1.75, the Australian Dollar to U.S. Dollar rate declined 1.10% to 0.6910. This raises the cost of money in the U.S., and indeed across the global financial system, which in turn weighs on the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar remains highly correlated with the global growth cycle and tends to track movements in global stock market benchmarks. The Aussie could therefore turn higher again if the market shakes off recent jitters and extend 2023's stock market rebound.1 month ago Pound Sterling LIVE
"If the 1.15-1.17 range in cable does materialize over the very near-term, we would currently view that range as decent short entry point. Our year-end target range for cable is 1.08-1.12," Gallo wrote in a Monday research briefing. Above: Pound to Dollar rate shown at hourly intervals with Pound to Euro rate, S&P 500 stock index future (yellow) and Dollar Index (black). Above: Pound to Dollar rate shown at daily intervals with Pound to Euro rate, S&P 500 stock index future (yellow) and Dollar Index (black). But such a correction would more likely be driven by a global re-assessment of risk ($ negative) than a further re-rating of UK prospects.5 months ago Pound Sterling LIVE